Outside Oberlin

Anything Goes as March Madness Sweeps the Nation

It's March madness baby, and that can mean only one thing: team-by-team breakdowns, bracket analysis, rankings, comparisons, predictions and intricate discussions of what will, could, should and might happen.

WEST

Potential upsets:

We called last year's Cinderella team Gonzaga getting the nod over higher ranked Louisville. But the Bulldogs are out in the second round (short of an act of god they'll fall to St. Johns). At least it was fun while it lasted.

Sixth-seeded Purdue has a chance to topple number three Oklahoma thanks to a deeper bench and a more seasoned backcourt. The inside matchup is a tossup, and since the Sooners tend to run it through the middle more, they could easily negate Purdue's guards. The Boilermakers really had a stronger schedule than the selection committee gave them credit for, and Oklahoma will find that out the hard way.

Marquee match-up:

St. John's vs. Purdue (regional semis) - This will be a physical game from the get-go but Purdue has the bench edge, so even if Brian Cardinal goes down, they have the backups. In the big dance, however, benches shrink so they may not matter much prior to foul trouble. If Purdue can beat the Johnnies press and crash the boards effectively, without losing too much to the break, they can win. Will that happen? Probably not. St. John's athleticism, ability to double-team and go back to a strong zone should make this a tough win for the Red Storm, but a win nonetheless.

Other games to watch:

Texas vs. L.S.U. (second round) - This is a toss-up if ever there was one. The edge goes to Texas thanks to their strength up front, both in starters and reserves. LSU can counter strong but Chris Mihm and Gabe Muoneke should step up and drive Texas forward.

Arizona vs. Texas - Assuming the Longhorns take the Tigers, this conference semi becomes a serious fight. If Loren Woods had come back, this would have been a cakewalk for the 'Cats. It won't be though, so look for a struggle, and 'Zona is ripe for the upset with their thin front court and thinner bench.

EAST

Potential upsets:

Penn takes the Illini to overtime and manages to use their superior brainpower (and Michael Jordan) to an unlikely advantage. Pepperdine plays on Knights temper and the Hoosiers go home. Hofstra's point guard 'Speedy' Claxton exploits Oklahoma State's lack of full-court D and becomes this year's Cinderella.

Will they all happen? Two out of three sports editors don't even see one of 'em going this way. We'll let you figure which one roots waaaay too hard for the underdog.

Definite upset:

Seton Hall takes out lame duck Oregon (pun intended), and if the Pirates' treys start falling, they'll give Temple a good run as well.

Despite the above, and any other excitement that manages to crop up, the East bracket really justsets the table for Duke vs. Temple. That's really it, so here's what happens:

If Lynn Greer gets hot from three-point range, his value off the bench is multiplied. Pepe Sanchez's scoring is unquestioned, so foul trouble is his only worry - but in a matchup zone it's of almost no concern. Duke's Jason Williams is capable of exploiting the zone, and if he does, he has a plethora of options, including the now healed Dunleavy, to dish to. Temple's big worry is not getting their offense rolling. They have hope if Duke's shooting starts to fade.

But the Owls' offense is Mark Karcher who will be smothered by the Battier/Carawell tandem that may or may not have lost the championship for Duke last year. Duke may be young, but they are heady, smart and composed. They can be beaten, and Temple has the skills to pull this one off.

MIDWEST

Potential upsets:

Number six UCLA takes on the three seed Maryland in a key second round matchup. The outside shooting of Jason Kapono and Earl Watson complement the finesse interior game of Dan Gadzuric and Jerome Moiso. If the Bruins can run, contain Maryland's post offense and hit their outside shots, the Terps are fried. If not, Lonnie Baxter and Terance Morris in the post and their trap D allows Maryland to roll. The intangible here is JaRon Rush. Following his return, the Bruins have gone 6-0.

Marquee match-up:

MSU vs. Syracuse (Sweet 16) - This will be the first time the Spartans are tested in bracket play. Syracuse has lost quite a bit of luster since losing their undefeated streak two-thirds of the way through the season. The key to a MSU win is watching their turnovers while their backcourt pressures the weaker Orangeman guards. At the same time they need to prevent Eten Thomas from getting the ball in the post, and hope they can box him out if missed shots fall short.

General thoughts:

Although some believe this to be the least interesting of all the regions, it has the potential to be as exciting as any of the other three. MSU appears to be a lock for the Elite Eight, but Kentucky, Syracuse, UCLA and Auburn all face tough first-round match-ups. Look for Iowa State to dominate its half, save for the potential match-up with an invigorated Bruins team. Also, look for Creighton to upset Auburn, who will be playing their biggest game without their leader, Chris Porter, who is sitting out due to NCAA violations concerning dealings with an agent. ISU-MSU could turn out to be the game of the tourney. Also, a Kentucky-Syracuse game would be quite exciting. Saul Smith, Jamaal Magliore and Keith Bogans are coming on for Kentucky. The back court battle is key. If Smith and Bogans hold their own against Bland and Hart of Syracuse, watch out: Kentucky will face MSU in the Sweet 16.

Marquee games:

Stanford vs. Tennessee (Sweet 16), Stanford vs. OSU (Elite Eight) - Stanford is our only clear pick to get to the Elite Eight now that Kenyon Martin of Cincinnati is out for the tourney. After steam-rolling a too small, too thin and too loose UNC squad, the Cardinal will likely find themselves up against Tennessee or UConn. If they face the Vols, look for Stanford's strength inside at both ends along with UT's outside game to cause the score to seesaw the entire game. Tennessee has leadership of their own in the middle with Vincent Yarbrough and Isiah Victor and floor leadership from junior point guard Tony Harris. That could make the difference mentally when they go against the number one seed.

Stanford has a versatile, yet inconsistent, weapon in frosh swingman Casey Jacobsen. Jacobsen compliments David Moseley on the outside, shooting 43 percent from beyond the arc. In the end, experience and depth inside gives this one to Stanford.

The picture is similar if the Huskies come calling. The key match-up here is one of styles: two stubborn, patient offenses looking to play solid post, spot up for treys and get to the line. Khalid El-Amin won't get many points off penetration unless UConn gets on the break, or Stanford collapses on him and he can kick it outside. On the other hand, if UConn is successful on the break, the Cardinal will have a difficult time matching up. If Kevin Freeman doesn't get involved offense-wise, Stanford can double team El-Amin without fear, and it's all over for the defending champs.

Chances are that Stanford weathers the numerous storms and finds themselves in the regional final against Ohio State. The Buckeyes will capitalize on their weaker bracket and the depleted Bearcats, though Tulsa is a sleeper. Assuming OSU is the other Elite Eight representative, watch for a battle for tempo control. Scoonie Penn and his backcourt mates like it fast, whether they're breaking or not. Stanford will try to slow it down, using more man-to-man D to frustrate OSU while pushing it inside to draw fouls. Stanford must not take Ken Johnson's shot-blocking ability for granted. He fundamentally alters a team's offensive plans. The winner won't be decided until one team or the other has more of their key players in foul trouble.

First-round upsets:

Razorbacks over the 'Canes. Arkansas is on a roll, having won the SEC Tournament on the backs of their three starting freshman. They will run into a tough OSU team, though, who is determined to prove that last year was not an accident. Cincinnati is looking at a tough second-round match-up, regardless of whether they play UNLV or Tulsa.