Solution to the Blue-Faced People
Puzzle
Answer to Question 1: To
help you understand the answer to the puzzle, I'm going to walk you
through three different variations of the game.
First, imagine that there was only one blue-faced person on the island.
What would happen? Well, clearly, after the stranger came to the
island, he would know that he was the one with the blue face since he
was the only one that could have
a blue face. So he would kill himself the first night.
Ok, so, second: Imagine that there were only two blue-faced people on the
island. What would happen? Well, the first day after the stranger came
to the island, one of the guys (call him Rod) would look at the other
guy (call him Todd) and think: "I know that Todd has a blue face, but I
don't know that I have a blue face (otherwise I would've killed myself
before today if I thought I did have a blue face), so Todd must be the
one who has a blue face. Moreover, Todd must be looking at my NON-blue
face and figuring out that he is the one with a blue face, so he will
surely kill himself at midnight." But Todd, being just as rational as
Rod, is thinking something similar about Rod (since Rod, contrary to
his assumption, does indeed have a blue face). So both Rod and Todd are
expecting that the other will kill himself by midnight on the first
night. This is because each thinks that he himself does NOT have a blue
face, and so each makes an assumption about what the other is seeing.
However, when both realize the next day that neither has killed
himself, what is the only thing they can conclude? That their
assumption about their own faces is incorrect; that both Rod and Todd
were each seeing a blue face, in which case they must both kill
themselves by midnight the second night.
Ok, so now imagine that you are a silent observer, hanging out on the
blue-faced island, watching a two-person blue-faced game. Given the
above reasoning, you should predict that it will take two nights for
the two blue-faced people to realize they each have a blue face.
However, let's imagine that, much to your surprise, neither of the
blue-faced people kill themselves on the second night. You should then
realize that you yourself
are part of the game, and that you must have a blue-face as well. For
the only explanation for why two blue-faced people haven't killed
themselves on the second night is that there is another blue-faced
person around. They are all waiting for the other two people to kill
themselves because they are all assuming that they themselves do not
have a blue face. So, once you have realized that you have a blue face,
and once the others have come to similar conclusions using similar
reasoning, you should all kill yourself on the third night. And this is
just what happens with the blue-faced people on the island.
To put the answer a slightly different way: Consider the first guy,
Rod, the second guy, Todd, and the third guy (call him Maud). Now Rod
thinks to himself: "I know that Rod and Maud have blue faces, and I
know that Rod knows that Maud has a blue face, and I know that Maud
knows that Rod has a blue face. But Rod probably thinks that Maud sees
no blue faces, since I am assuming I don't have a blue face, and Rod
will be assuming that he (Rod) doesn't have a blue face either. So when
Rod thinks about what Maud is seeing, he assumes that Maud is seeing
two NON-blue faces. And so Rod will expect Maud to kill himself on the
first night. Maud will work through similar reasoning regarding Todd.
And so both Rod and Maud will expect that the other will kill himself
on the first night. When this doesn't happen, however, they will
realize that they each have a blue face, and so they will kill
themselves on the second night. If this doesn't happen, however, and if
they are still both alive on the third day, then I will know that I,
too, have a blue face. For Rod and Maud will have gone through the same
sort of reasoning as I have. So, if everyone is still alive on the
third day, then we should realize that we all have blue faces, and so
we will all kill ourselves at midnight on the third night."
Answer to Question 2:
The new information that the stranger provided was this: When one of
the guys--take Todd again--thinks about what the others are seeing or
what the others know, he thinks that one of them sees no blue faces.
For example, when Todd assumes that he himself does
not have a blue face, and he
thinks about what it is that Rod thinks that Maud sees, given that Rod
is also assuming that he (Rod) has a non-blue face, then he will
conclude that Rod thinks that Maud sees two non-blue faces. Yet if this
conclusion is correct, then the stranger's utterance will be news to
Maud--namely, it will inform him that he is the one with the blue face.
It will also be news to Rod, if Todd wants to speculate as to what Maud
thinks that Rod sees.
Put another way: one of the things that each of Rod, Todd, and Maud did
NOT know was what one of the others thought that the third person was
seeing. The stranger's utterance let's them know that if one of them
thinks that another is seeing no blue faces, then the one who is seeing
no blue faces must have a blue face.
Back to
Two
Puzzles
Back to Meg's
Teaching Page
Back to Meg's
Main Page
Page Last Updated: Jan. 11, 2006