SPORTS

National League Baseball Playoff Preview

Two weeks ago, the Review offered its readers a detailed analysis of the American League teams that will battle each other to reach the World Series. This week, we take a closer look at the senior circuit.

Atlanta Braves (103-56): What a surprise. The Atlanta Braves have somehow managed to dominate the National League East, an intensely competitive division comprised of perennial losers (Montreal Expos, Philadelphia Phillies), pretenders (New York Mets), and some team from Florida that recently attempted to trade its entire starting rotation for a sack of peanuts. To be sure, Atlanta fans must lose sleep over the prospect of a series against the world champion Marlins, whose roster has been shamelessly stripped of whatever talent it once possessed in a series of cost-cutting measures. Anyway, the Braves have the offensive capabilities to defeat any team in both the American and National Leagues. Meanwhile, their legendary pitching staff, featuring Greg "Cy Young" Maddux, Tom Glavine, Denny Neagle, and John Smoltz, should be able to overcome the challenges posed by San Diego and Houston - both offensive powerhouses - en route to a World Series berth. And while the Braves lack a closer with playoff experience, Kerry Ligtenberg (30 saves with an ERA of 2.77) has filled the gap adequately since the mysterious disappearance of Mark Wohlers.

Houston Astros (100-59): Prior to the trading deadline, the Houston Astros were not considered a serious threat to defeat the Braves and Padres in a postseason series. How things have changed. With the addition of pitching ace Randy Johnson, the Astros may have secured themselves a berth in the National League Championships, if not the World Series. Certainly, their offensive talent cannot be questioned, and the heart of their lineup - Craig Biggio, Derek Bell, Jeff Bagwell, and Moises Alou - might just be the most lethal combination in either league. But the reason why Houston won 21 of 28 games in the month of August is their pitching. Johnson (10-1, 1.28) joins a rotation that already boasted the talents of Shane Reynolds (19-8, 3.58), Jose Lima (15-8, 3.74), and Mike Hampton (11-7, 3.46). Their closer, Billy Wagner, has been reliable throughout the regular season. So the talent is there. Whether the Astros can stand up to Atlanta's cast of playoff-tested veterans in October is the only question that remains.

New York Mets (88-71): Forever overshadowed by their ostentatious crosstown rivals, the Metropolitans have struggled for the past five years to capture the attention of the New York media and to overpower their divisional foes, the Atlanta Braves. Will their goals be realized during the upcoming playoffs? Not likely. Despite their shrewd acquisition of catcher Mike Piazza from the Marlins (who, incidentally, held out for some batting gloves and a pepperoni pizza), the Mets can rely upon offensive contributions from only one other positional player: first baseman John Olerud, whose .351 batting average is second-best in the National League. Meanwhile, their pitching staff has been bolstered by the resurgence of Al Leiter (another Marlins castoff), but lacks the depth necessary to challenge teams in Atlanta, San Diego and Houston. Should New York be lucky enough to reach the postseason, their exit will surely be swift.

Chicago Cubs (88-71): Since July, much of the media attention surrounding the Chicago Cubs has been focused upon one man: rightfielder Sammy Sosa, whose quiet bid to become the single-season home run champion has brought unparalleled excitement to National League ballparks. And while Sosa has earned his share of the spotlight alongside fellow slugger Mark McGwire, his heroics have overshadowed the accomplishments of a team that has languished for years near the bottom of the Central Division. With the offseason acquisitions of outfielder Henry Rodriguez and shortstop Jeff Blauser, the Cubs have strengthened an offense that already featured Sosa and the consistent bat of first baseman Mark Grace. Meanwhile, rookie Kerry Wood has emerged as the leader of a pitching staff that has been solid, if not spectacular, throughout the regular season. And there lies the problem. Without Wood, who was recently diagnosed with a sprained ligament in his elbow and may miss the remainder of the season, Chicago faces an uphill struggle to outlast San Francisco and New York in the race for the Wild Card spot. Their starting rotation still boasts the talents of Kevin Tapani and Steve Trachsel (both of whom are enjoying career years), but the rest of their staff - Mark Clark, Mike Morgan, and Don Wengert - is a combined 9-20 with an ERA of 5.74.

San Diego Padres (97-62): Throughout the past decade, the Padres have oftentimes functioned as the doormat of the National League Western Division , consistently providing teams in San Francisco, Los Angeles, and, until recently, Atlanta with guaranteed wins to pad their already impressive records. That time has come and gone. Under the steady guidance of general manager Kevin Towers, the Padres have gradually strengthened their lineup by acquiring offensive talents (Wally Joyner, Greg Vaughn) to complement the likes of Steve Finley and future Hall of Famer Tony Gwynn. Meanwhile, their reliable starting rotation is anchored by Kevin Brown, who can defeat any pitcher - even Greg Maddux and Randy Johnson - on any given day. Can the Padres compete with powerhouse teams in Atlanta and Houston? Yes. Will San Diego reach the World Series for the first time since 1982? The odds are against them, but hey, as any sports historian will eagerly tell you, anything can happen.

San Francisco Giants (86-72): Their lineup features Barry Bonds, the everlasting Joe Carter, Ellis Burks, and Jeff Kent. Their closer, Robb Nen (another Marlin... oh, nevermind) has amassed 39 saves while sporting a remarkable 1.45 ERA. So why will the Giants fail to capture the National League Wild Card? At the risk of sounding redundant, the answer is pitching. After Kirk Reuter (16-9, 4.22) and Mark Gardner (13-5, 4.27), San Francisco's starting rotation too weak to compete with stronger staffs in New York and Chicago. Should they somehow manage to reach the postseason after miraculously climbing back into the Wild Card race, they stand no chance against teams in San Diego, Houston, and Atlanta.

- Ross Drake

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Copyright © 1998, The Oberlin Review.
Volume 127, Number 4, September 25, 1998

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