Convocation Introduces New Perception of Politics

Last night Mark S. Mellman was the second guest speaker in Oberlin College's 2000 convocation series. Mellman, CEO of The Mellman Group, a polling network that helps leading political figures and Fortune 500 companies, delivered a speech to cut through the media-driven Campaign 2000. Mellman focused on what he believes are three fundamental points to determine the outcome of any political race and place the media hype aside.

Mellman began with the notion that politics is a matter of perception, and what drives American politics at the presidential level are peace, prosperity and issue structure. He also commented that these fundamentals are not necessarily the eminent issues facing the country, but that these "kitchen-table issues" are the important ones to consider for votes.

If a country has remained at peace under the governance of a particular party, said Mellman, then chances are that party will be re-elected. Democrats are not focused on defense issues, nor have they ever been, and in times past, when the Cold War posed a threat to American security, the Democratic Party was not popular. Bush's term ended the 12 year Republican reign partially because of America's involvement in the Gulf War.

"The party in power tends to get rewarded for keeping the peace. After the Gulf War everything got taken off the table. We're not consumed with issues of defense. Those issues bedeviled democratic candidates in that [Cold War] era," Mellman said.

The second issue at stake and which is felt keenly in daily life is personal and national prosperity. Mellman's group works to uncover the over-all "mood" of Americans through polling. Do Americans feel that the economy is booming? Do they feel it is on the decline? Mellman explained that in the last 25 years the overall mood has always been one of doubt. The country has generally felt that it was heading in the "wrong direction," said Mellman. "It is only in the last one and a half years, the longest sustained period of plurality, that the majority of Americans have felt the mood is good," he said.

The nominee's platform is also a huge factor, but in an election in which two candidates hardly seem to differ from one another, the important issue for Gore and Bush to focus on is how they do differ. This has led to stances on issues by each candidate that have not had widespread public appeal. For example, while Republican candidate George W. Bush suggested that Americans should fund Medicare and Social Security through the stock market, Democratic candidate Al Gore rebutts this idea stating that it is too dangerous. Bush then counters this with a logical answer: Americans believe in the stock market as a means of gaining wealth. Why should it not work?

In fact, Mellman states that in a poll, more union workers who received high pay on their pension plans answered that they would rather rely on the stock market to ascertain comfort in retirement. Candidates have taken stances they later regret on a variety of issues, and later attempt to draw away the public focus.

Mellman's main point lay in the media and its manipulation of polls to its advantage. He said, "The three underlying factors show that it is likely that Al Gore would do reasonably well. There is no conceivable way Gore would be 10 to 15 points behind." [as the media has been showing for the last year or so with varying numbers.] "Polls do not mean anything. They're fairly meaningless data regenerated again and again."

He also stated that many polls are not objectively created, conducting a questionnaire beforehand that induces a certain answer. The Gallop Poll shows misconstrued data as it polls registered and non-registered voters, enlarging the margin of error.

Mellman admitted that the race would be close and said that only once in previous history can he recall it being this close: the 1960 election in which John F. Kennedy was nominated. The only other election that showed an opponent who "battled back" and who was still not able to win the election, was Hubert Humphrey during the year Nixon was elected.

Mellman said, "The Vice President is not seen as an out-front and dynamic leader. It may have something to do with the word 'vice' in front of your name."

He continued, stating that in 1988, then Vice-President Bush saw an issue of Newsweek Magazine with the word "WIMP!" printed in large letters above his photograph. Just as Bush overcame this in his convention he believes that Gore did too, and that the V.P. has changed his image.

The questions poured forth after the speech, and one student asked about Mellman's view on third party candidates. He felt that third party candidates had little to no shot at winning, and that the closest independent nominee was Ross Perot. About Nader, Mellman said that his campaign had "essentially collapsed" except for certain parts of the country like the Portland, OR area where he was doing better than average.

The last question of the night asked Mellman's opinion of the effect the president will have on the new openings in the Supreme Court. Mellman stated that although not many Americans thought about such issues, he feels that the two to four new spaces there are crucial, and will be tremendously impacted.

Sophomore Valerie Potter said, "I'm really glad somebody asked about the Supreme Court seats. It just kills me that [Nader]'s downplaying this key point to pull votes away from Gore, giving democrats a cold shower by throwing the votes to Bush!"